Rockets vs. Blazers - Who Will Win the Portland vs. Houston 2014 Playoffs Match-up?

Portland Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers scorched through their first-half schedule, going 31-10 thanks in large part to efficient three-point shooting (39.5%, 2nd best in the league per NBA.com). Damian Lillard was able to slash through the lane, as defenders were forced to stay home on shooters, while LaMarcus Aldridge thrived from the post and elbows. Throughout the first half of the season, the Blazers boasted the best clutch offensive rating.

Unfortunately for Portland, the second half of the season hasn’t been as successful. The Blazers’ shooting has cooled off, and their porous defense (ranked 17th) has given up far too many points to allow them to consistently win. After a rough stretch, Portland has won 8 of 9 going into the team’s season finale against the Clippers.

Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets, on the other hand, have a strong defense that forces opponents to take ill-advised shots. The Rockets’ 11th-ranked defense stayed afloat when starters Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley were sidelined with injuries, and teams struggle to corral offensive rebounds against their imposing big men.

James Harden likely will be unguardable in this series, as he has been in many games this season. Although the Rockets turn the ball over frequently (15.4 per game, 2nd worst in the NBA), they also draw a lot of fouls. Houston shot by far the most free throws this year, 31.2 per game, led by Harden’s 9.1 attempts per contest (on nearly 87% shooting). Seeing as Nicolas Batum is the Blazers’ only strong defender, he has to be careful not to use too much contact, or else see a quick exit against an attacking player like Harden.

Chandler Parsons is always a threat from the perimeter, as evidenced by his 37% three-point shooting. Because the Rockets have a strong inside-outside game, the Blazers will struggle to run around the court and contain all of Houston’s weapons.

Matchup

Howard has averaged a whopping 23 points and 13.5 rebounds on 63% shooting against Portland this season, which is a huge key in this series. Robin Lopez is a good team defender, but he can’t handle someone Howard’s size down low. Worse, doubling him is incredibly dangerous against Houston with all their perimeter shooting. Likewise, Aldridge is a huge mismatch for Terrence Jones. If Aldridge commits to punishing Jones down low and not settling on fadeaway jumpers, Portland can draw fouls and score easy buckets inside.

In late-game situations, it will be interesting to see whether the Blazers choose to employ a “Hack-a-Howard” fouling strategy. Though Howard’s percentage from the charity stripe improved from 49.2% to 54.5% this season, he still is a major liability from the free throw line. In close games, Howard is needed to contest shots on the defensive end, but he can’t be counted on to produce on offense.

Conclusion

Overall, the Rockets definitely have an edge in this series. They took three of four against the Blazers, with their only loss coming in Portland. The Rockets are the youngest team in the playoffs, with an average age of just 25.4, which helps them play at the highest pace of any playoff team. The Rockets lead the league in FTr (Free-throw rate) with .387 free-throws taken per field-goal attempted, but the Blazers are 5th-best at avoiding free throws in the league, with an opponent FTr of .192. If the Blazers can hit their shots and play exceptional defense for a change, they have a shot at winning, but don’t count on it.